This technical memorandum will begin to review the current policy structures of the Energy Policy adopted but not yet implemented in South Africa. It will structure the context of this analysis from the White Paper on Renewable Energy 2003, the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) developed by the Department of Minerals and Energy (DME, 2004), as well as the Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, and the 2021 COP26 United Nations Conference. According to the White Paper on Renewable Energy (2003) South Africa identified that the emissions from coal generated energy, such as carbon dioxide, fossil fuels such as petroleum and coal have placed the country in a spotlight surrounding climate change. The context suggests that South Africa plans to address the crisis in the distribution and production of electricity by various embedded generation processes. This memorandum will review three main projects that directly influence governments decision on the procurement of renewable energy projects namely, the Independent Energy Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPP) of Karpowerships South Africa, the R131 billion commitment from various countries at the COP26 for South Africa, and the Green Hydrogen procurement programme on behalf of the German development bank, KfW. Forming part of the energy policy task team, the following will be analysed as to advise the Minster of Public Enterprise, Pravin Gordhan, on the adoption of a workable energy policy. A brief situation analysis of the current state of the policy process, the potential stakeholders who may influence the policy, the post-implementation and the associated measures, and lastly, the specific risks associated with the policy process that could lead to policy failure.
South Africa’s three main embedded generation projects
Independent Energy Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPP)- Karpowerships South Africa
According to South African Government (n.d) the REIPPPP situated itself in a position to be admired by various other African countries, due to its successful generation capacity of 6 000 MW which were allocated to bidders from a range of technologies, “principally in wind and solar”. The South African government recognised that the REIPPPP provided the country with alternative energy supply to combat the degradation of power supply from Eskom. Moreover, the generation of renewable energy in the Eastern Cape created approximately “18 132 jobs, while the province was awarded 16 wind farms and one solar energy farm with a total investment of R33,7 billion” (South African Government, n.d). Furthermore, it was noted that the allocation of 2 500 MW was allocated for specific coal programme procurements from independent power producers (IPP), while South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) signed an agreement in 2014, the Grand Inga Project which secured 500 MW between both countries. Eberhard, Kolker, and Leigland (2014, p.1) recognised that South Africa’s IPP was a “competitive tender process that was designed to facilitate private sector investment into grid-connected renewable energy (RE) generation in South Africa”.
During March 2021, South Africa launched its preferred bidders for the Risk Mitigation IPP Procurement Programme (RMIPPPP), which saw the Turkish energy provider, Karpowerships SA, secure three ports for energy ratification. Moreover, the IRP 2019 identified the demand for electricity, while the South African Government (2021) argued that the “rollout of electricity infrastructure envisaged in the IRP is carried out” by the Ministerial Determinations under Section 34 of the Electricity Regulations. Moreover, during President, Cyril Ramaphosa’s, announcement of the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan, the essential need for energy security was identified to assist the country in its economic recovery. South African Government (2021) identified eight preferred bidders for the RMIPPPP, while it noted: “These 8 projects will inject a total private sector investment amount of R45 billion to the South African economy, with an average local content of 50% during the construction period”.
However, despite the successful procurement of these eight bidders, it was met with controversy, while South African environmental groups argued that the procurement and establishment of Karpowerships in the three ports of Richards Bay, Coega, and Saldanha Bay posed an environmental risk. During June 2021, the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) argued that the Competent Authority within the department failed to submit the correct application for the National Management Act and section of the Environmental Impact Assessment regulation. In addition, Carnie (2021) argued that the DMRE extended the deadline regardless of the political interference and allegations of the rejection of Karpowerships environmental impact assessment (EIA). However, regardless of Gwede Mantashe’s, deadline the group, Green Connection highlighted that these power generation projects “were not in the public interest” (Carnie, 2021). In terms of policy this creates a hindrance for the DMRE, as Carnie (2021, p.1) argues that “DMRE’s apparent determination to cling to fossil fuels was key to the ‘Uproot the DMRE’ campaign launched by civil society, calling for a system change”.
Green Hydrogen from KfW
Creamer (2021) highlighted in an article featured in Engineering News that the German government bank, KfW planned to initiate a programme in South Africa valued at Euro 200 million to support green hydrogen projects. Moreover, Creamer (2021) indicated that the money was in the form of a concessional loan appointed to the Council for Scientific Research (CSIR) and Meridian Economics. According to the context, green hydrogen is “produced using renewable electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen using an electrolyser” (Creamer, 2021). The author states that KfW National Hydrogen Strategy adopted in 2020, factors the role of decarbonisation with the assistance of renewable resources. CSIR principal engineer, Thomas Roos, voiced: “Projects could involve the production, transportation, export and/or storage of green hydrogen and green-hydrogen products, as well as projects in existing materials and chemicals value chains that support a transition from fossil-based processes to ones based on green hydrogen”. This adoption of alternative generation can ensure the ease of alternative electrical supplies, specifically ones that are contributing positively to climate change. However, this external influence of national stakeholders could create risks for South Africa, whereby concessional loans could hinder the countries internal capabilities in the public sector, whereby certain organisations could feel they have power over the loan and the ratification of electricity which could create a divide in public value and the true intent of the project. Additionally, this adoption of a programme could factor in many positives, due to the stakeholders involved. The CSIR as well as Meridian could act as a regulator of the funds and the project itself.
COP26 United Nations Conference
During the COP26, South Africa was awarded concessional finance from the European Union, which consists of France, Germany, United Kingdom, and the United States of America. Moreover, the event followed the global norths agenda, of accelerating South Africa’s dependency on coal into retrospect. Godhino (2021) stated that this consortium offered South Africa a loan of approximately R131 billion to phaseout out the production and use of coal. Consequently, the author suggests that this amount would be split over the country’s dependency on coal, its socio-economic conditions of direct coal related jobs, as while as the grant of $200 million from the Climate Investment Funds. However, the risks associated with this roll-out phase are directly influenced by the amount of jobs that are dependent on coal production, despite the agenda of rapid expansion of renewable energy, South Africa is still largely one of the biggest producers of coal. Its noted that Eskom would need $30 billion over 10 to 15 years to manage its first phase out of coal, including “just transition initiatives, repurposing existing plants, and extending the grid to support renewables” (Godhino, 2021, p,2). Moreover, the concessional loan relies heavily on Eskom’s failing budget sheet, this loan would need to first secure Eskom as an entity, placing the organisation in a stable position. The concessional finance is imperative that its used correctly, while Meridian Economics states that South African treasury would need to secure loans at a reduced intertest rate with the agreement of a set price. Godhino (2021) indicated that “additional mitigation would result from the accelerated decarbonisation of the power sector,” with an aim of completion by 2040.
Energy Policy in South Africa
The Department of Energy and Resources (2004) highlights within the White Paper on Renewable Energy (2003) that South Africa is largely dependent on the production of coal and coal resources, this dependency is seen in the number of people who work in coal-related jobs. However, the need to move away from the production of fossil fuels is evident in South Africa’s view and disposition towards climate change and decarbonisation. The White Paper on Renewable Energy (2003) argues that South Africa has recognised that the emissions of greenhouse gas and use of fossil fuel, has created an international intervention. During the Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, a deal on sustainable development was decided. Von Schirnding (2005, p,2) highlights that the developmental needs of Africa, has a “strong focus on household energy, water and sanitation”. As it is seen on the dependency of fossil fuels and environmental inclination.
Energy Policy Situation Analysis
The White Paper on Renewable Energy is overseen in governments White Paper on the Energy Policy of the Republic of South Africa (DME, 1998), “which pledges government support for the development, demonstration, and implementation of renewable energy sources for both small and large scale applications” (The Department of Energy and Resources 2004, p. 1). Moreover, the White Paper notes governments commitment, vision, strategies, and objectives to implement and promote renewable energy in South Africa. The White Paper highlights government’s vision in adapting its idea of an ‘energy economy’ while it states: “An energy economy in which modern renewable energy increases its share of energy consumed and provides affordable access to energy throughout South Africa, thus contributing to sustainable development and environmental conservation” (The Department of Energy and Resources 2004, p.1). The advancement of the energy policy is to ensure that government enforces possible renewable sources of energy into its energy portfolio over a certain time period. However, given South Africa’s fiscal resources as well as its economy, limited resources are available for renewable energy programmes which places emphasis on ensuring that the “global climate change resources and other financial resource are accessed to facilitate its implementation” (The Department of Energy and Resources 2004, p.2). Strategically government will systematically need to deploy various programmes, partake in discussions with stakeholders, and access concessional loans that will assist with its journey of adapting a sustainable environment.
The White Paper on Renewable Energy (2003) highlights South Africa’s dependency on coal and notes that fossil fuels are the country’s primary source of energy, which accounts for 90% of all production with the use of coal (Department of Minerals and Energy, 2004). Additionally, the total amount of electricity which was generated in 1991 culminated around 91% of it deriving from coal (The Department of Energy and Resources 2004, p.4). The White Paper highlights that South Africa’s “reliance on fossil fuels to meet energy requirements” is seen within its economy and trade, while the country accounts for one of the largest exporters of coal. Moreover, the concern from the global north places emphasis on the rate of concern surrounding climate change in the country.
Potential stakeholders who influence the adoption of a policy
Bingham, Nabatchi, and O’Leary (2005) argue that policy implementation is no longer dependant on a top-down approach that is highlighted by governments involvement alone, but the active contribution from private, public and non-profit organisations which can influence the idea of governance. Moreover, the authors suggest that citizens participation can be the tool makers behind participation by government. “Practice is leading theory in developing processes for the new governance. As they meet their obligations to execute our public laws, public agencies engage in activities that range from the legislative or quasi-legislative to the judicial or quasi-judicial” (Bingham, Nabatchi, and O’Leary, 2005, p. 547). Frederickson (1991) identifies five theories of the public for “public administration, the public as interest group (pluralist), consumer (public choice), represented voter (legislative), client, and citizen” (Bingham, Nabatchi, and O’Leary, 2005, p. 549). As suggested this direct contribution by the public expresses the view, that public opinion can influence the policy-making cycle.
Considering the energy policy the engagement from public administration as highlighted by Bingham, Nabatchi, and O’Leary (2005) directly explains the volatility and the importance of having a horizontal partnership between stakeholders. The notion of a top-down approach can cause pubic divide and increase scepticism among citizens, when they feel their opinion or influence is disregarded. This deepens the role of citizen interaction with governance, while the implementation stage can yield a greater intertest in something such as climate change as opposed to a smaller more constraint policy such as land reform, which is specific to South Africa alone.
A review of the case of phasing out fossil fuels for the adaption of renewable energy resources in Switzerland will be discussed. The Swiss Federal Council deployed a strategy surrounding the reduced energy consumption of fossil fuels by 54% which explains the need for measurable adaption within a policy. According to Diaz, Adler, and Patt (2017, p.4) the planning of the hydropower project proved to be complex, while the public opposed the strategy. Therefore, as highlighted by the authors, the Swiss Federal Office of Energy attempted to address the hydropower debate in the country, while “this situation highlights the need for a deep analysis of stakeholder perspectives on the matter” (Diaz, Adler, and Patt, 2017, p.4).
Diaz, Adler, and Patt (2017) question whether a stakeholders’ perceptive on renewable energy can pose a risk to the implementation of the policy itself. Moreover, the authors state: “local stakeholders ate pro-producers, national stakeholders are pro-efficiency” (Diaz, Adler, and Patt, 2017, p,1). As suggested the idea that potential stakeholders can strongly influence the adoption of a sustainable policy framework is directly influenced by the decision that the stakeholders accept the policy itself. Therefore, imperative to the energy policy, the most important stakeholders would be government itself as well as local and national environmental lobbyists. “The human dimension of public acceptance involves perceptions, namely justice in the outcome and the process of engagement, distributive fairness, protected values and place attachment” (Diaz, Adler, and Patt, 2017, p,3). As stated public acceptance of a policy can either negatively or positively impact a policy, while the economic cost-benefits of the policy are determined by the regulatory acceptance of citizens. An environmental lobbyist as a potential stakeholder can persuade public participation, if the campaigning behind the goal of reduced carbon emissions and renewable energy sources are implemented. If Karpowerships SA is used as a benchmark, the idea that incorrect environmental approvals were appealed, while environmentalist’s such as the Green Connection opposed the idea of power ships. This is a clear indication that there was not enough involvement in the REIPPPP by external stakeholders apart from those that directly influence the IPP. Therefore, there is a need for an enhanced communication stage within the policy decision-making cycle that accounts for public administration of a policy objective.
Process and associated measures that could lead to successful adoption and implementation of the sustainable energy policy framework
Firstly, the succession of a policy process measured by its implementation can be defined by the policy itself. The context suggests that the goals and objectives are to move away from alternative energy supplies such as fossil fuel and develop a framework around sustainable development. The Department of Energy and Resources (2004) highlights in the White Paper on Renewable Energy 2003 that sustainable development is counteracted by the “integration of social, economic, and environmental factors” that are continuously monitored throughout the planning, implementing and decision-making cycle.
Birkland (1998) argued that if an event could potentially cause more harm than good in the future that it would be considered as a focusing event. Therefore, if the process of focusing media attention and public participation around a certain policy could strategically measure its adoption, would the idea of centring focus around alternative energy production and distribution not create public influence? The context suggested that Eskom was being sabotaged, if the use of focusing events can be implemented on a wider scale, whereby public opinion is monitored on the implementation of a policy this could therefore, influence the adoption of the policy framework. In addition, the conditions that need to be satisfied before the policy reaches the adoption phase would need to consider the concept of the policy, the consideration of all stakeholders input, and the means of measuring the design itself. Therefore, you would want the policy to be run cohesively through society, feasibility studies, and surveys before it can be sustainably accommodated by government and regulators. The idea that a policy is adopted by government and not yet implemented, will rely on its measurability scale. Once all the processes have been correctly adapted only then can the policy be measured and adopted.
Risks in the policy process
The result of risk to a policy which could lead to the failure of the policy before it was ever implemented can rely on the envisaged objectives at the start. May (2015) argues that the failure of policies is hallmarked by the policy design itself. May (2015) highlights the failure of the American Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act – Obamacare, where the complexities of the health care reform were intertwined with political policy reform and state health website glitches. Risks which could potentially affect the policy process are reliant on the features that the policy begun with. If conflict is not resolute from the get go, conflict among stakeholders and government actors can be clouded by patriarchal views. May (2015) explains that the two main problems why policy fails is owned to the initial implementation of the policy, and the shortfalls from strengthen the implementation prospects.
For the energy policy to progressively be successful the following risks need to be avoided. Gatzert and Kosub (2017) identify that risk management and risk assessment are vital in understanding the risks that drive a policy. Moreover, the risks associated with the energy policy can be dependent on not enough global input in aligning the policy when its adopted. The influence of stakeholders that could potentially influence the policy itself, and simply corruption and greed. If programmes such as the one implemented by KfW are not carefully regulated, the amount of money injected in the country could fall into the wrong hands, leading to policy failure. Additionally, political influence over public participation can pose as a risk, whilst some policies have a great cycle but fail to ever be implemented. This could pose as one of the greatest risks.
Conclusion
The energy generation landscape and energy climate of South Africa is continuously evolving, moving away from the production of fossil fuels to renewable energy supplies. This has carefully been analysed from the KfW programme, to Karpowerships, to the loan from the COP26 in Glasgow. The REIPPPP can potentially be a great IPP, if careful consideration is paid to the stakeholders involved. As noted the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan carefully places South Africa’s views on climate change at the forefront, the careful planning and adoption of a policy can move from the adoption phase to the implementation phase if all considerations are applied.
References
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